MBA留学準備 GMAT Critical Reasoningの極意(Support系:As living standards)

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[お題」GMAT Critical Reasoning GcrC-2 02(Support系:As living standards)

As living standards continue to improve worldwide, the demand for plastic products will inevitably increase.

As demand for plastic products increases, United States petrochemical companies,

most of which are located along the Gulf Coast, will increase production of the petrochemicals from which plastics are made.

Yet economists predict that, even as these companies increase production, the currently high rate of unemployment in communities along the Gulf Coast is unlikely to decline.

[Question]

Which of the following, if true, would offer the greatest support for the economists’ prediction?

(A) Falling oil revenues have forced oil-producing nations in the Middle East to scale back plans to expand their petrochemical industries.

(B) Competition among Gulf Coast petrochemical companies can be expected to lead to a decline in the prices charged worldwide for petrochemical products.

(C) Foreign markets are dependent on United States petrochemicals shipped from Gulf Coast ports.

(D) The highly automated petrochemical plants along the Gulf Coast can be operated by only a few people.

(E) Past increases in domestic demand for plastic products made by United States companies have prompted petrochemical companies along the Gulf Coast to expand their plants and hire additional workers.

[分析]

「Premise(前提)」

まず、「Premise(前提、厳然たる事実として分かってること)」は:

As living standards continue to improve worldwide, the demand for plastic products will inevitably increase.

世界の生活水準が上がると、プラスチック製品の需要がいやおうなしに高まる。

As demand for plastic products increases, United States petrochemical companies,

most of which are located along the Gulf Coast, will increase production of the petrochemicals from which plastics are made.

プラスチック製品の需要が高まるにつれ、アメリカの石油化学会社(その多くはゴルフ湾にあるが)プラスチックの原材料である石油化学製品の製造を増産する。

「Conclusion(結論)」

そして「Conclusion(結論)」は、

( predict that=~と予測している、がキーワード、つまりここから結論部分だとわかる)

Yet economists predict that, even as these companies increase production, the currently high rate of unemployment in communities along the Gulf Coast is unlikely to decline.

しかしながら(ということはきっと、上記の流れに対し予想外の展開)、これらの会社が増産をしても、ゴルフ湾一帯のの現状の高い失業率が低下することはなさそうである。

[Question]

今回の[Question]は、

Which of the following, if true, would offer the greatest support for the economists’ prediction?

つまり、strengthen(support)=議論を言わば「よいしょ」(確かに言う通り!と)するものを選ぶ。

でも、上記のConclusion(結論)一見奇妙。だって、増産→仕事の増加→失業が減る、というのが常識的に予想される構図だから。この一見奇妙なConclusionを、どうやったら「よいしょ」できるか。。。

[解題]

これは、ひとつづ選択肢をつぶしていってもいいが、慣れてくると実は、けっこう頻出の手合いであるとこが分かるのですよ。すなわち、

ビジネスが好調だと、常識的には、求人が増えるのが当然だが、増えない要因は?

(いろいろあり得るが、金本的には)

1)オートメで人がいらない

2)専門技術職などを、他から連れてくる

といったのがよくあるパターン。

そこで、そういったキーワードにアンテナを張って探していくと、

[正解]

(D) The highly automated petrochemical plants along the Gulf Coast can be operated by only a few people.

もちろんautomatedがキーワード。

他の選択肢、もし迷ったのがあったら、連絡ください。その他質問も歓迎!